Marketing for all seasons: how seasonal fluctuations impact marketing and product success

Abstract

In my second essay, I examine the impact of the weather, one of the most apparent situational factors, on how positively consumers evaluate products and services upon retrospection. Both anecdotal and empirical evidence indicate that the weather impacts consumers’ choices (people consume more ice cream in hot weather) and shopping behavior (shopping malls have less traffic during snow storms). However, little is known about how the weather impacts consumers’ post-consumption evaluations of products and services. In this research, I propose that consumer reviews are biased by incidental weather conditions, both during experience and during evaluation. Based on mood-as-information theory, bad weather conditions, such as rainfall, should have a negative impact on consumer evaluations while good weather conditions, such as mild temperatures, should have a positive impact on consumer evaluations. I hypothesize that, in addition to this directionally congruent relationship, if the weather during experience was better (worse) than the weather during retrospective evaluation, then ratings may be more positive (negative) because past states are evaluated in comparison with current states. I test my hypotheses using both online consumer review data and an experiment. My findings provide evidence that (1) the weather during experience and during retrospection have directionally congruent impacts on the positivity of reviews and (2) a comparative effect dominates the directionally congruent effect of weather during retrospection so that negative changes in weather from the time of experience to the time of review are associated with more positive reviews. I discuss the research and managerial implications of these findings.

This dissertation consists of two distinct but related essays on the impact of seasonal fluctuations on performance outcomes that are of interest to Marketers. I examine how firms can make strategic marketing decisions for their products and services in the face of seasonal changes in consumer demand, competitive landscapes, and environmental factors. Traditionally, research in business and economics has viewed seasonality as an exogenous factor that should be controlled for rather than explicitly investigated. In my dissertation, I explicitly examine two types of seasonal factors: seasonality in the industry landscape and seasonality in the external environment. In addition to making significant theoretical contributions, a main objective of my dissertation work is to provide practical and impactful managerial implications for firms in a wide range of industries, as nearly all industries experience some degree of seasonality. This research is especially relevant for highly seasonal industries, such as consumer electronics, entertainment, fashion, and tourism; all of which have large economic impacts. The findings of my dissertation research highlight the importance of leveraging the impact of exogenous seasonal patterns when making strategic marketing decisions to maximize firm performance.

In my first essay, I examine how independent filmmakers should time their movie releases with respect to the predictable seasonal fluctuations in the movie industry. My research question is: should independent producers release their films during high seasons, which are characterized both by increased consumer demand and fierce competition from big-budget productions, or low seasons, which feature lower demand and competition? To answer this question, I examine how the opposing demand-side and supply-side factors moderate the revenue impacts of independent filmmakers’ marketing decisions. I find that independent film revenues benefit less from increased distribution duration and pre-release advertising when a film is released during a high season. The economic magnitude of these effects, taken together, indicates that independent filmmakers are better-off releasing movies during low seasons. Independent films that are supported by higher-than-average advertising budgets have the most to gain by entering during low seasons. The negative impact of supply-side competition in high seasons is particularly pronounced for independent action films and dramas. As an exception to this general finding, documentaries seem to offer independent filmmakers a competitive advantage against big studio productions during high seasons. My findings for independent filmmakers contrast with those for large studios, whose marketing efforts produce generally better results in high seasons. This research underscores the importance of considering seasonality when developing new film release strategies.