Measuring the impact of coordination in disrupting illicit trafficking supply chains

Abstract

In this thesis, an interdiction model is developed to assess the value of coordination in disrupting illicit trafficking supply chains, specifically large scale heroin networks. Coordination is a tool law enforcement and intelligence rely on to make informed and effective decisions in targeting transnational trafficking organizations. In this respect, it is important to assess which of various cooperative agreements (such as task forces) between law enforcement and intelligence agencies responsible for interdicting different segments of the illicit supply chain yield more a significant impact on interdiction efforts. This impact is assessed by measuring the improvement to the interdiction efforts that result from different levels of cooperation amongst agencies. An additional potential application of this thesis is to the disruption efforts of human trafficking networks, in which interaction and cooperation between potential interdiction agencies does not have significant precedence. The key findings include: (1) the most effective cooperative configuration for interdiction across multiple tiers consists of federal, state and municipal law enforcement, (2) full coordination between all agencies becomes particularly important as the network becomes less dense, finally (3) the impact of a particular coordinated environment more than doubles when you double the budget while the budgets are relatively small (2.5% and 5%).