Coupling–decoupling of u.s. freight: freight production per employee vs. gdp growth with regional and state spatial evidence
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Authors
SUBAH, AFIA IBNAT
Issue Date
2025-12
Type
Electronic thesis
Thesis
Thesis
Language
en_US
Keywords
Civil engineering
Alternative Title
Abstract
This study examines how freight activity co-moves with the macroeconomy by pairing an establishment-based intensity metric, freight production per employee (FP/employee) from NCFRP-37 with annual GDP growth. A national baseline is contrasted with four BEA regions, Mideast (R2), Great Lakes (R3), Southwest (R6), and Far West (R8) over 1997–2012, spanning the 2001 and 2008–09 recessions. Visual comparisons reveal three recurrent patterns: (i) coupling in materials-intensive sectors (e.g., NAICS 32, 42), where FP/employee falls in recessions and rebounds with growth; (ii) decoupling in logistics-light services (NAICS 44, 54, 55), where FP/employee trends down irrespective of the cycle; and (iii) asymmetric/downside-resilient responses in selected manufacturing and warehousing niches (NAICS 33, 49), where FP/employee holds up in downturns and steps up in recoveries. To explore the spatial heterogeneity in freight origins, the patterns of different regions were also compared with each other and later the analysis maps manufacturing-only FP at the ZIP/ZCTA level for NY, OH, TX, and CA by multiplying CFS/NCFRP-37 coefficients by ZIP employment. It was observed that hot spots concentrate along interstate corridors and others. Moreover, in California, freight production clusters in the low-elevation corridors while mountain regions show much lower levels except at a few major passes and interstate junctions. Together, the results separate business-cycle co-movement from structural reallocation across sectors and places, informing forecasting and freight-planning priorities.
Description
December2025
School of Engineering
School of Engineering
Full Citation
Publisher
Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, NY